Michele Bachmann Wins in Iowa; Did We?

There was big news in Iowa this weekend. In case you were in a media blackout, Michele Bachmann won slightly beating Ron Paul in what was basically a statistical tie. Bachmann has surged as of late and the media’s attempt to destroy her a la Sarah Palin seems only to have propelled her to the top. Perhaps the media’s philosophy is “the higher they are, they harder they fall”. Ron Paul’s close second makes for an interesting turn. While fiscally, Bachmann and Paul are quite similar, they differ on a range of other issues, mostly concerning foreign policy.

In the same poll, the next in line was Pawlenty, who had less than half the votes of either Bachmann or Paul. This shows a considerable gap from the top two to the rest on the bottom. In related news, Jake Tapper has indicated that Pawlenty will be dropping out of the race in an ABC news exclusive. Curiously, this came mere hours after Pawlenty’s twitter account thanked his supporters and mentioned that he looks forward to the campaign ahead. Perhaps he meant someone else’s campaign?

The question now is: with Michele Bachman’s win, did America? The short answer is: we really don’t know at this point. I like Bachmann, especially over Ron Paul. However, there are a myriad of variables to take account. First, it’s the first straw poll. This is hardly the deciding victory in the GOP primary. Second, where would Mitt Romney have ended up? He decided to not even enter himself into the poll. It’s an interesting strategy. It could be that he feels that he is the GOP frontrunner in the primaries and didn’t want to risk losing first place in the Iowa straw poll. His next move could be to selectively enter into the poll he feels confident he’ll win. A first-place finish could take the wind out of the sails of the Bachmann and Paul campaigns. The downside to this strategy is that he may have offended so many of the GOP voters, that they send him crashing to the bottom, kind of like what happened to Giuliani when he focused on Florida voters in the 2008 presidential primary.

Then there’s Rick Perry’s late entrance into the field. How will he affect the primaries going forward? He’s the candidate that I feel has the most to say. Ask anyone what the biggest problem in America is right now and almost uniformly the answer is job growth. As the Texas governor, he’s created about half the total jobs created in the US during this recession. Right now, the other candidates have ideas on job growth, but this guy actually did it. That puts Perry at a huge advantage.

The bottom line is we still have a lot to learn going forward. With Romney’s absence and Perry’s late bid, things could shake up.